Skip to content

CIPHER Conferences

CIPHER 2026

February 25 – 27, 2026

In its eighth installment, the Current Innovations in Probability-Based Household Internet Panel Research (CIPHER) Conference expanded its scope to include artificial intelligence (AI) as a new area of focus.

Presentations

The program, including the agenda and speaker bios can be found here.

Presentation PDFs and recordings

Below are links to CIPHER 2026 presentations (in PDF), associated papers, and recordings of presentations if available.

PresenterPresentation (PDF)Link to Recording or Papers
UAS Session A: Health, Time Use, and Survey-Based Evidence
Michael SobolevReplicating Health Behavior Research using the Understanding America Study
Italo Lopez Garcia Job Demands, Time Use, and Cognitive, Mental and Physical Health over the LifecourseRecording
Nana XiaMultimodal Prediction of Emotional Health: Linking Fitbit and PROMIS Sleep Data in the American Life in Realtime (ALiR) Study, A Nationally Representative Digital Health Benchmark
Grigory FranguridiGeneralized method of moments with incomplete dataPaper
UAS Session B
Kyla ThomasAfter the Flames: Longitudinal Insights from the LABarometer Wildfire Study
Jiawen LiaoAdverse Mental Health Impact of 2025 Los Angeles Wildfire Disaster: A Difference-in-Difference Analysis of the Understanding America StudyRecording
Lingzi LuoRecent Adverse Life Events, Mental Health, and Sources of Professional and Non-Professional Support Among U.S. Adults: Findings From the Understanding America StudyNA
Wändi Bruine de BruinShould we change the term we use for “biodiversity loss”? Evidence from a U.S.-wide terminology experimentRecording
JoNell StroughAging and Emotional Resilience to Extreme Weather: Testing Mechanisms Using the Understanding America StudyRecording
UAS Session C
Jeremy BurkeIs Financial Knowledge Really Declining? Randomized Evidence on the Effects of Smartphone ResponsesRecording
Vikesh KumarU.S Households’ Financial Well-being and Crypto Investment Decisions
Anthony GaroveThe Effect of Requesting Financial Data Linkage on Survey Participation
Laila Tasneem BeraA Pervasive Threat: Analyzing UAS Survey Data on Frauds and ScamsRecording
Session 1: New Probability Panels and Innovations in Recruitment
Henning SilberCreating the M Panel: A New Probability-Based Online Panel of the General US Population
Ellyn MaeseRecruiting Conservative Panel Members: What Works, What Doesn’t, and What’s the Trade-Off
Amie RapaportUASTeen: Introducing the UAS’ new Teen PanelRecording
Frank KellyFive Dollars and a Click: Field Evidence on Digital Post-Incentives in an Address-Based SampleRecording
Session 2: Novel Applications I
Laith AlattarUsing the UAS Comprehensive File to Evaluate Social Security Program Knowledge and Communication PreferencesNA
Brittany AlexanderMapping County-Level Religious Diversity: A Comprehensive Bayesian Approach to the 2023 Census of American ReligionRecording
Marcin HitczenkoUsing Survey Metadata to Identify Patterns in Satisficing
Kim P. HuynhWear am I in your wallet? Cash Holdings of Mobile Payment UsersRecording
Kathleen MullenMeasuring Work Capacity
Session 3: Survey Attitudes, Participation, and Panel Engagement 
Megan A. HendrichEarly Birds vs. the Full Flock: Representativeness of Probability Samples Across the Field PeriodRecording
Emilio RiveraSustaining Engagement in a Probability-Based Panel: Early Evidence and Panelist Preferences for SMS Survey RemindersRecording
Yongchao MaSurvey Attitudes and Survey Participation – and Vice VersaRecording
Alexandros Christos GkotinakosOpting Out of Politics—and the Panel? Civic Disengagement and Attrition in Probability-based Online PanelsNA
Lunch Keynote
Trent D. BuskirkLet’s Not Leave Probability Panels to Chance: Why AI Matters for Their Future
Designing Smarter, More Resilient Probability Panels for the AI Era
Recording
Session 4: Representativeness in Probability Panels
Jared CoopersmithEvaluating the representativity of KnowledgePanelRecording
Lena RembserWho do we not reach with online-only? Insights from a mixed-mode panelRecording
Jon A. KrosnickAccuracy of 51 samples from non-probability online panels and river samples vs. RDD telephone. A reanalysis of data from the most recent Advertising Research Foundation studyNA
Benjamin PhillipsUsing knock-to-nudge methods for recruitment to a probability-based online panel: Findings from AustraliaRecording
Session 5: Monitoring and Improving Data Quality in Probability Panels
Cristina TudoseNavigating data quality: Comparative insights from probability-based and opt-in online panels across EuropeNA
Mickey JacksonWho fails data quality checks in probability panels? And what (if anything) should we do about it?
Stephen RaynesMonitoring Data Quality in Probability-Based Internet PanelsRecording
Joris MulderFrom Surveys to Digital Traces: Insights from Data Donation Studies in the Dutch LISS panelRecording
Session 6: Experimental Evidence on Recruitment for Probability Panels
Cameron McPheeKevin CollinsUsing Texting to Pre-Paid Cells to Reach Underrepresented PopulationsRecording
Ipek BilgenIncorporating Text Messaging into Probability-Based Panel Recruitment: Experimental Insights on Response and RetentionRecording
Darby SteigerWill You Open the Envelope? Improving Recruitment Materials for a Probability-Based PanelRecording
Tracy Keirns Text-to-Web Panel Recruitment: Demographic Differences in Panel Join Rates and Survey Completion RatesRecording
Session 7: Novel Survey Designs, Linkages, and Emerging Data Sources
Jennifer SinibaldiCan We Replace Employment Questions with Auxiliary Data from LinkedIn or Resumés?Recording
Joshua ClaassenGoing beyond survey self-reports: Processing, enriching, and analyzing digital tracesRecording
Nick BertoniThere’s an app for that – lessons learned from building and implementing a mobile app for KnowledgePanelRecording
Evan W. SandlinUsing an Online Probability Panel to Collect Residential History
Session 8: Artificial Intelligence
Nicholas BiddleGenerative AI data donation – Who donates, how to increase it, and why it matters
Ting YanLeveraging Artificial Intelligence to Code “Other/Specify” Responses in SurveysRecording
Jan Karem HöhneSurvey data contamination through Large Language Models: Predicting LLM-generated answers to open narrative questionsNA
Andrew ParkerCoding at Scale: Human-LLM Partnerships in Large-Sample Qualitative ResearchRecording
Session 9: New Tools for Survey Data Access, Integration, Comparison, Analysis, and Visualization
Andy PeytchevMultiple Imputation for Combining Probability-Based Web Panel and National Interviewer-Administered Survey Data with Content OverlapRecording
Matthias SchonlauSnapshot plots: a visual summary of your dataRecording
Bas WeermanContext-Aware AI Search with UAS data and LLMsNA
Paul ScanlonBeyond Response Rates: Comparing Data Quality Across Probability and Non-Probability Web Panels Using Measurement Invariance and Text Analysis Approaches
Marco AngrisaniPublic Attitudes Toward Artificial Intelligence and Conversational Technologies: Evidence from the Understanding America StudyRecording
Lunch Keynote
Ben GurgaVirtual Assistants at Social SecurityNA
Panel Discussion
Marcel DasTrent BuskirkTom EmerySebastian LundmarkBrady T. WestNext Generation Social Surveys: Innovations in Design, Data Linkage & Digital ToolsRecording
Session 10: Data Quantity in the Age of AI
Arundati DandapaniSynthetic Data: Method or Mirage? AI Governance Trade-Offs in an Unstructured WorldRecording
Frank GravesThe Polling Paradox: How Survey Methods Confront—and Sometimes Fuel—the Disinformation CrisisRecording
Aleia Clarke FobiaFuture-Ready by Design: Government Data Quality Frameworks in an AI-Augmented WorldNA
Session 11: Novel Applications II
Ritika ChaturvediTadeja GracnerDescribing lifecourse GLP-1/GIP experience in the Understanding America Study, a nationally-representative population health study
Lisa Bondo AndersenFrom Cursor to Cognition: Clustering Respondent Styles with Neural EmbeddingsRecording
Dan Cassino“Not the Man They Think I Am”: Gender Role Strain as a Predictor of Cognitive DeclineRecording
Yiwen CaoAssessing the Consequences of Caregiving for Individuals’ Well-Being in a Representative Sample: A Longitudinal Analysis Using Survey and Wearable DataRecording

Keynotes

On Thursday 26 February, Trent D. Buskirk, Professor and Provost Fellow-Data Science and Professor Biostatistics at the School of Data Science and Joint School of Public Health at Old Dominion University, presented a keynote address titled:

Let’s Not Leave Probability Panels to Chance: Why AI Matters for Their Future
Designing Smarter, More Resilient Probability Panels for the AI Era

On Friday 27 February, Ben Gurga, Acting Executive Director of Analytics, U.S. Social Security Administration, presented a keynote on Virtual Assistants at Social Security.

Scientific Committee

Arie Kapteyn, Tania Gutsche, Livia Montana, Marco Angrisani, and Francisco Perez-Arce (USC Center for Economic and Social Research); and Jan Karem Höhne (DZHW, Leibniz University Hannover).

Sponsorship

CIPHER is supported by funding from the Social Security Administration and the National Institute on Aging under grant U01AG077280.

For questions, please email Tarra Kohli ([email protected]; [email protected]).