The USC Dornsife / Los Angeles Times 2016 Election “Daybreak” Poll

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Event Type: 
Brown Bag
Date and Time: 
Thursday, September 22, 2016
12:00 pm – 1:00 pm
Jill Darling

Presidential election panel poll, participants are members of the USC Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research (CESR) Understanding America Study. This is a panel survey, with new members continuously added over time. We use probabilistic vote questions (likelihood of voting for a candidate, and probability of voting), and ask two additional questions per week.  Results are weighted for non-response and aligned with previous voter turnout based on self-reported 2012 vote history. Results are calculated as daily rolling 7-day averages and posted online from July 4, 2016 through election day. We will present an overview of the poll’s methodology and estimation procedures, discuss how our approach differs from traditional polling, and present a recent analysis of patterns of individual shifts in candidate certainty, preference and intention to vote, over time.