Events

The research reported herein was pursuant to a grant from the U.S. Social Security Administration (SSA), funded as part of the Retirement Research Consortium (RRC). The findings and conclusions expressed are solely those of the author(s) and do not represent the views of SSA, any agency of the federal government, Bocconi University, the

University of Michigan, the Michigan Retirement Research Center at the University of Michigan, or the Vanguard Group Inc. We thank Feiya Shao and Ann Rodgers for excellent research assistantship. The research uses data from the Vanguard Research Initiative (VRI) what was developed by a research team under a program project grant from the National Institute on Aging P01-AG026571. The Vanguard Group Inc. supported the data collection of the VRI. Vanguard’s Client Insight Group and IPSOS SA were responsible for implementing the VRI survey and provided substantial input into its design. John Ameriks, Andrew Caplin, and Matthew D. Shapiro are co-principal investigator of the VRI. The design of the VRI benefited from the collaboration and assistance of Joseph Briggs, Wandi Bruine de Bruin, Alycia Chin, Mi Luo, Minjoon Lee, Brooke Helppie McFall, Ann Rodgers, and Christopher

Tonetti as part of the program project, from Annette Bonner (Vanguard), and Wendy O’Connell (IPSOS SA). This project uses Survey 4 of the VRI that was designed by Ameriks, Briggs, Caplin, Lee, Shapiro, and Tonetti. For documentation of the VRI, including a dynamic link to the survey instrument, see http://ebpprojects. isr.umich.edu/VRI/ . A preliminary version of this research was presented at the Retirement Research Consortium conference in August 2017 under the title “Using Subjective Conditional Expectations to Estimate the Effect of Health on Retirement.” We are grateful to Gabor Kezdi for very helpful suggestions, to Wilbert van der Klaauw for discussing the paper at the AEA 2018 meetings and for providing detailed feedback along with many useful comments as well as to all other participants in the AEA 2018 session on “Subjective Expec tations, Belief Formation, and Economic Behavior.”